This is part 3 of an ongoing series which explores probabilistic thinking through investigating a murder. You can find part 2 here and part 1 here. Please like, share and subscribe for updates. When we last saw Vilila and Wrinje, they were waiting for Glagalbagal to answer a question they had. An old lady in the local area had been murdered, and her niece had been arrested. They wanted to know whether it was likely that the niece had murdered her aunt.